4 seats declared, Blair sweating

An early pattern. Four seats now declared - all safe Labour territory, but all three showing Labour with a large drop in its share. The TV pundits are saying it's a Lib Dem surprise - but is it?
This election has been the first where principal campaigning efforts have gone to marginal seats, American-style. I wonder if voters in these safe Labour seats - where Labour deliberately didn't focus its efforts because it never needed to - are just pissed off that they had so little attention?
If so, that's bad news for the Conservatives, because it means the marginal seats will have much smaller swings away from Labour. The early fist-pumping of 4-6% swings may be overenthusiastic....