China, girls, and undercover economists
Just back from a talk by Tim 'Logic of Life' Harford at the Warwick Economics Summit. As he explains the strange wisdom-of-crowds groupthink behind subjects as diverse as speed dating and prison populations, I'm looking around the room and noting further evidence of two trends in British education: girls and China.
Most of these kids are Economics students. Now Economics isn't quite as much a 'boy' discipline as physics or chemistry. But it still feels vaguely masculine.... yet more than half the students in the room are female. It's in keeping with a general decline in males participating in higher education in the UK.
What does this mean for the next generation of British males? There'll be a surfeit of highly-educated women fishing in a shrinking pool of educated men; this means an increase in women 'marrying down' and a rise in the existing trend of males feeling underpowered, directionless, and trapped. It looks like Fight Club got it right. What I'm seeing in this room today could lead to a breakdown of society within 20 years.
The other influence is China. Approximately one in four students in the room is of Chinese extraction. The economics of China itself, of course, answer this - mainland China long ago outstripped Hongkong as the UK's source of foreign students - and its growing middle class, a natural tendency towards education, and the sheer gravitational pull of a country short of a million accountants (to quote one example) will keep Britain's business schools chocka with Chinese for decades to come. There are economic reasons for top universities like Warwick to accept them, too: they pay international student rates, which are much higher than it can charge locals.
So there are economic outcomes and drivers for both the situations I see in the lecture hall this morning.
But what does this bode for Britain?
A new elite of female leaders, but an underclass of sub-educated men, and the birthrate dropping to zero among ethnic white British as a result? And will the gap be filled by immigrants from India and China? I don't think so; those countries have enough opportunities at home for bright young graduates. Much of Britain's population growth at the moment is due to recent immigrants having larger families; unfortunately, the sectors of British society having all the kids aren't the ones creating wealth. The unemployment rate among British Muslims is three times higher than the general population, yet they have many more kids for the taxpayer to support. The incidence of NEETs (not in education, employment, or training) is growing, yet the chav sector, too, has higher birthrates and they have their kids young.
So it's a depressing snapshot of Britain's future. A shrinking labour pool in the middle, a foreign elite at the top, and an expanding Bottom Thirty Million being supported by the State. It looks like life for the UK's hard-squeezed middle class is only going to get tougher.
Most of these kids are Economics students. Now Economics isn't quite as much a 'boy' discipline as physics or chemistry. But it still feels vaguely masculine.... yet more than half the students in the room are female. It's in keeping with a general decline in males participating in higher education in the UK.
What does this mean for the next generation of British males? There'll be a surfeit of highly-educated women fishing in a shrinking pool of educated men; this means an increase in women 'marrying down' and a rise in the existing trend of males feeling underpowered, directionless, and trapped. It looks like Fight Club got it right. What I'm seeing in this room today could lead to a breakdown of society within 20 years.
The other influence is China. Approximately one in four students in the room is of Chinese extraction. The economics of China itself, of course, answer this - mainland China long ago outstripped Hongkong as the UK's source of foreign students - and its growing middle class, a natural tendency towards education, and the sheer gravitational pull of a country short of a million accountants (to quote one example) will keep Britain's business schools chocka with Chinese for decades to come. There are economic reasons for top universities like Warwick to accept them, too: they pay international student rates, which are much higher than it can charge locals.
So there are economic outcomes and drivers for both the situations I see in the lecture hall this morning.
But what does this bode for Britain?
A new elite of female leaders, but an underclass of sub-educated men, and the birthrate dropping to zero among ethnic white British as a result? And will the gap be filled by immigrants from India and China? I don't think so; those countries have enough opportunities at home for bright young graduates. Much of Britain's population growth at the moment is due to recent immigrants having larger families; unfortunately, the sectors of British society having all the kids aren't the ones creating wealth. The unemployment rate among British Muslims is three times higher than the general population, yet they have many more kids for the taxpayer to support. The incidence of NEETs (not in education, employment, or training) is growing, yet the chav sector, too, has higher birthrates and they have their kids young.
So it's a depressing snapshot of Britain's future. A shrinking labour pool in the middle, a foreign elite at the top, and an expanding Bottom Thirty Million being supported by the State. It looks like life for the UK's hard-squeezed middle class is only going to get tougher.
Labels: Warwick University
posted by chrisworth at 2:18 PM
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